Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 8 | 1-6-1 | 18.8% | 29.2% | 31.7% | -8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 65.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% | +9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 43.3% | -3.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 46.5% | -2.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 51.0% | +0.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.0% | +19.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 75.4% | +18.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Memento Pocketwatch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pristine Scourge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hidden Enclave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |